We’re about a month into the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic meltdown.
I dare not make any predictions here about the ultimate outcome of the crisis, save for one, and it’s this:
History will not look favorably on our surprise and unpreparedness.
Every western government on the planet was caught with their pants down. Our medical system has over-optimized the redundancy out of its business. There was no stockpile of supplies and no redundancies of supply chain because we only focus on improving efficiencies, not building buffers.
Some will rightfully point to those like Nassim Taleb and Bill Gates who predicted this sweeping catastrophe. The irony is that these two prophets would be the first to tell you that this crisis was anything but unpredictable. The interconnectedness of global travel meant it was only a matter of time. In the words of Taleb, “The coronavirus was no Black Swan.”
Which begs the question, what fundamental and inevitable future disasters have we written off as impossible, and are only just around the corner?